The new Egyptian government’s harsher approach regarding relations with Israel seems to be slowly driving a wedge into Egypt’s foreign relations. If foreign relations were a game of chess, Israel would represent the king. Because of the ongoing turmoil Israel is constantly battling, allegiances to the country are often controversial.
Egyptian demonstrations at the Israeli embassy in Cairo, protesting the Israeli attacks on Gaza, have the rest of the world worried that the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt will not be enough to hold the alliance between the two countries together. Egypt’s new prime minister, Essam Sharaf, “is expected to take a tougher line with Israel than the government of the ousted president Hosni Mubarak did”.
It seems the Egyptian people and their government are taking foreign policy in a new direction, but the question is whether or not that direction will put distance between the United States and Egypt. Among many Arab, Islamic and African countries, Egypt is a moderating influence. Therefore, U.S. foreign policy makers have a vested interest in the country because the alliance protects Israel, and maintains military cooperation and regional stability. However, Israel links the United States and Egypt. Prior to the 1979 Egyptian - Israeli peace treaty, “the United States opposed all aspects of Egypt’s belligerency toward Israel, including military posturing, arms purchases, the economic boycott, use of Soviet military advisors, attempts to exclude Israel from international fora, providing haven for guerrilla attacks against Israel, refusal to negotiate, and other gestures or positions considered unfriendly”.
Egypt’s relationship improved tremendously with the United States when Egypt began to build a better relationship with Israel,“As a result of Egypt’s cooperation with the 1974-1975 disengagement agreements, President al-Sadat’s 1977 trip to Jerusalem, the 1978 Camp David agreements, and the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Egypt’s policy toward Israel changed from belligerency to cooperation, and U.S. policy toward Egypt changed as well.”
However, the new regime, including Nabil Elaraby, Egypt’s new foreign minister and public opinion favor a stricter approach to Israel. “Elaraby is also likely to be more open to establishing diplomatic relations with Iran, improving Egypt's frosty relationship with Syria and opening dialogue with Lebanon's Hezbollah movement, […] suggesting that the new Egypt may not be as reliable an ally of the United States as Mubarak's Egypt was.”
The recent demonstrations in Cairo are a clear indicator that not only the new cabinet is deviating from old alliances, but the Egyptian people as well. Demonstrators against the Israel attacks on Gaza called for cutting off gas exports to Israel, ending diplomatic and economic relations, and an uprising to take place on “the anniversary of the Nakba (day of catastrophe) that marked the creation of Israel and the expulsion of Palestinians from their homeland”.
Solidarity with Palestine, however, would mean an end to Egypt’s relationship with the United States. Peace between the two countries was established because of Egypt’s establishment of peace with Israel. It is in the best interest of Egypt to uphold all foreign contracts signed previous to the installation of the new regime to prevent their domestic turmoil from turning into international troubles.
It was an interesting situation with Mubarak in power and with him getting ousted. He was the link the US had to Egyptian foreign policy but he was a time bomb waiting to explode. When he lost power, the US had to be scared and play the new situation with incredible caution. Now that Egypt has taken stances regarding Israel and other Middle East nations, the US has to step up it's game and make sure Egypt knows they must stay in good terms with the US. In todays capitalist world, no nation can survive without the support of the major powers (e.g. China, the US, the UK, Germany, France, India, etc.). By siding against the US, Egypt wouldn't be connected to these other powers. No nation in the Middle East can provide the needed economic assurance that the US can. It'll be an interesting next couple of months and years to see how Egypt and the US handle the brewing conflict.
ReplyDeleteThis was a very valuable comment. I agree completely that the US must make sure Egypt knows what it will take to stay on good terms with the US. Further, your comment about how Middle Eastern countries are not the economic support that the US is, was very good insight. I am interested to see the choices that the new Egyptian government makes in regard to foreign relations.
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